Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer and home to over 200 million people, is grappling with a worsening economic downturn that has seen its GDP per capita fall by a staggering 72.35% over the past decade.
According to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nigeria’s GDP per capita has dropped dramatically, from $3,022 in 2014 to just $835.49 in 2024. This marks a severe contraction in the economic output per person and highlights a deepening economic crisis.
The country’s total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has also been severely affected, plunging from $568.5 billion in 2014 to $194.96 billion in 2024, reflecting a 65.71% decline in the overall economic output. This steep drop, coupled with slowed real GDP growth, indicates a troubling trajectory for the nation’s economy. Real GDP growth, which adjusts for inflation, stood at 6.3% in 2014 but has since fallen to just 2.9% in 2024.
The economic downturn has been exacerbated by a series of policy reforms initiated under President Bola Tinubu in 2023. Among these reforms, the controversial removal of fuel subsidies triggered a sharp increase in petrol prices, contributing to an inflation rate that surged to 34.8% in December 2024. This inflation spike has further strained household budgets and eroded purchasing power across the country. The devaluation of the naira, coupled with a surge in import costs, has worsened the inflationary pressures that Nigerians are already struggling with.
Nigeria is also facing difficulties in meeting its oil production targets under the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a major factor contributing to the country’s foreign exchange shortfalls. Despite the government’s attempts to stabilize the economy, the desired results have not materialized, leading to increasing skepticism from economists and the general public about the effectiveness of current economic policies.
Fuel prices, which have surged from below N200 per litre in May 2023 to nearly N1,000 per litre, further reinforce the notion that Nigeria’s economy is in a state of decline. “This reinforces the argument that the economy is in a steady state of decline,”
Even the increasing federal allocations, which are often touted by the government as evidence of economic growth, have not translated into tangible improvements in living standards. “A 50kg bag of cement cost N2,000 or N3,000 when we were sharing hundreds of billions. Now that trillions are being allocated, cement costs N9,000 or N10,000. What has changed for the better?” Okeke questioned.
Nigeria’s oil sector, which remains the dominant foreign exchange earner, accounting for over 90% of the country’s export value, has faced its own challenges. Nigeria has struggled to meet its OPEC production quota in recent years, further straining government revenue. However, OPEC recently reported a modest increase in Nigeria’s crude oil production, which rose to an average of 1.53 million barrels per day in January 2025. This marks the first time the country has met its 1.5 million bpd target since it was set in November 2023.
Despite this temporary boost, analysts caution that structural challenges—ranging from pipeline vandalism to underinvestment in the sector—continue to threaten Nigeria’s long-term oil production stability. Development economist Aliyu Ilias pointed out that the prolonged depreciation of the naira has been a key factor in the country’s low GDP per capita. “The naira has fallen from about N300 per dollar to over N1,500 per dollar. Looking at key economic indicators, there is no sign of improvement,” he stated.
Ilias also noted that the 2025 national budget reflects the country’s ongoing financial strain, as it is lower in dollar terms compared to the 2024 budget. He argued that reversing the decline in GDP per capita requires urgent policy action. “To achieve economic growth, Nigeria must boost production, balance trade, improve security, and ensure food and energy security,” he said. “Without addressing these fundamental issues, our GDP will continue to struggle, and GDP per capita will not improve.”
With the country’s economic prospects growing increasingly uncertain, it is clear that substantial changes will be required to reverse the current decline and pave the way for sustainable growth.
