African airlines experienced a 5.7% drop in air cargo demand in February 2025 compared to the same month last year, as global and regional markets showed signs of fluctuating trends in the air freight sector. Capacity also took a hit, falling by 0.6% year-on-year, while international operations saw a slight increase of 1.1%.
The latest data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) revealed that the global air cargo market, in general, also faced a slight dip in demand, with a modest 0.1% decline compared to February 2024. This marked the first global contraction in air cargo since mid-2023.
In Africa, the downturn in demand for air freight aligns with broader global trends, with the IATA report highlighting significant shifts across various regions. While some key markets showed growth, others, including routes linking Africa, saw subdued activity. The report noted that total cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), decreased by 0.1% globally, while international demand showed a slight increase of 0.4%.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, explained that the global decline could be partly attributed to the unique circumstances of February 2024, which benefitted from a leap year, the Chinese New Year, disruptions in sea lanes, and a surge in e-commerce activity.
Regionally, African airlines’ performance mirrored global cargo market dynamics. Although Africa saw a decrease, the global landscape was far from uniform. Asia-Pacific carriers led the growth, boasting a 5.1% increase in demand, while North American airlines experienced a modest decline of 0.4%. European carriers saw a minor decrease of 0.1%, while the Middle East endured the sharpest drop at 11.9%. Latin American carriers, however, defied the trend, recording a 6.0% increase in demand.
Trade routes also revealed contrasting performance, with the Trans-Pacific corridor emerging as the busiest air cargo route globally. Meanwhile, several traditional connections, including Middle East-Asia, African routes, and some European sectors, witnessed a decline in demand.
Key factors influencing global trends include an increase in industrial production (up 3.2% year-on-year in January) and a healthy 5% growth in world trade.
However, inflationary pressures remain high in major markets like the US, Europe, and Japan, while China’s economy is experiencing deflationary pressure, as it recorded its first decline in consumer prices in nearly a year.
The report also noted a slight dip in jet fuel prices, averaging $94.6 per barrel, reflecting a 2.1% decrease from January, a factor that could help cushion operational costs in the months ahead.
Despite challenges, the air cargo industry is navigating a dynamic landscape, with regional and sectoral shifts shaping the future of global freight movement. African airlines will need to adapt to these market changes to secure their position in the evolving international air cargo market.
