The global telecoms sector is projected to experience moderate growth, with revenue rising at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.9% through 2028, falling behind inflation, according to PwC’s Global Telecoms Outlook, published ahead of the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona (March 3-6, 2025).
Despite a 4.3% rise in revenue in 2023, reaching $1.1 trillion, the industry is expected to face challenges in the coming years, including rising costs, intense competition, slow subscriber growth, and lingering macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures.
The outlook paints a challenging picture for the sector, where average revenue per user (ARPU) is expected to decline by 2% annually until 2028 across mobile, fixed broadband, and voice services. However, there are variations in growth depending on services and markets. Fixed broadband and mobile subscriptions are projected to grow by 3.8% and 4.3% annually, respectively, while fixed voice subscriptions will experience a decline of 1.8%. Geographically, countries like India, Nigeria, and Malaysia are expected to see higher growth rates in fixed subscriptions, with India leading at 17.2%.
Key Highlights from the Report:
- Global telecoms revenue is expected to grow at a 2.9% CAGR through 2028, adding $200 billion in incremental revenue by 2028.
- The sector’s total revenue from fixed and mobile services rose by 4.3% in 2023 to $1.1 trillion.
- 5G subscriptions, though currently slow, are set to increase significantly, from 1.79 billion in 2023 to 7.51 billion by 2028.
- Cellular IoT services, particularly in the automotive sector, are expected to double, with revenues projected to hit $34.1 billion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 15.8%.
- The industry must adapt by strategically investing in AI, digital infrastructure, fixed connectivity, and collaborating with investors and regulators to unlock new growth.
5G to Become Dominant Mobile Standard by 2026
Despite a slow start, 5G services are poised for significant growth, with subscriptions expected to more than quadruple by 2028, reaching 7.51 billion. This will make 5G the dominant mobile standard, capturing 64.1% of total mobile subscriptions by that year. One of the standout applications of 5G is Fixed-Wireless Access (FWA), projected to be the fastest-growing broadband technology, with a 18.3% CAGR through 2028. As the sector adapts to this shift, investments in fibre and fixed connectivity will play a key role, with industry capex expected to grow at a 2.4% CAGR from 2024 onwards.
IoT and Automotive Sector Drive Cellular IoT Growth
The automotive and mobility sectors are expected to be the main drivers of growth in cellular Internet of Things (IoT) services. IoT revenue in the automotive sector alone is forecast to more than double from 2023 to 2028, reaching $34.1 billion, growing at a CAGR of 15.8%. This growth is driven by the increasing adoption of smart automobiles and other connected mobility solutions across regions.
AI: A Critical Factor for Telecoms Transformation
AI presents a significant opportunity for telecom companies, but it remains largely under-utilized. At the consumer level, AI tools can enable telecom providers to offer personalized customer experiences, enhance workforce productivity, and improve network operations through AI-powered cognitive network operations centers (NOCs). The industry’s scale, real estate footprint, and network expertise position telecom companies to lead the way in AI applications, which are essential for reducing operational costs and enhancing service offerings.
Wilson Chow, PwC’s Global TMT Lead & China AI Lead, highlighted the need for telecoms to accelerate their investment in AI technologies. “Telecom players must accelerate their investment and application of AI technologies if they are to transform their cost base and customer experience,” Chow said. This transformation, he added, will also help telecoms build the “AI grid,” providing the digital infrastructure necessary to power the next generation of internet connectivity.
In conclusion, while the telecoms industry faces a period of slow growth and rising costs, significant opportunities lie in emerging technologies such as 5G, IoT, and AI. By investing in these areas and re-imagining how they deliver value, telecom companies can not only navigate the challenges ahead but also position themselves for long-term success in an increasingly digital world.
