U.S. President Donald Trump has declined to rule out the possibility of a recession in the United States, despite market concerns surrounding his “America First” economic agenda. In an interview with Fox News that aired on Sunday, Trump was hesitant when asked if he expected a recession this year.
“I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing,” Trump explained. He added that while it may take time, he believed the changes would ultimately benefit the country.
Trump’s comments come amid growing market jitters, especially over his fluctuating announcements on tariffs and signs of an economic slowdown. Last week, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, while also increasing duties on Chinese goods to 20%. However, just two days later, he announced a delay in some of the tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods until April 2.
These tariff moves have contributed to concerns among investors. The benchmark S&P 500 index dropped more than 3% from Monday to Friday, marking its worst weekly performance since September. Additionally, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDP tracker downgraded its estimate for the January-March period, forecasting a 2.4% contraction, down from the previous estimate of 2.3% expansion.
On Friday, Goldman Sachs raised the odds of a recession in the next 12 months from 15% to 20%. However, a positive economic indicator came from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which reported the addition of 151,000 jobs in January—slightly below economists’ expectations but in line with the 2024 average.
Meanwhile, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick downplayed concerns about a recession. In an interview with NBC’s Meet the Press, Lutnick expressed confidence in Trump’s leadership, saying, “Donald Trump is a winner. He’s going to win for the American people. That’s just the way it’s going to be. There’s going to be no recession in America. I would never bet on recession. No chance.”
