Recent incidents involving damage to undersea cables around Taiwan and in Europe have sparked concerns over possible sabotage, though proving these actions remains difficult. Taiwan’s Coast Guard seized a Chinese-crewed cargo ship, the Hong Tai 58, last month, suspecting it may have deliberately severed one of its undersea telecom cables. However, authorities have struggled to definitively identify the perpetrators, with Taiwan’s Coast Guard stating they could not rule out China’s involvement.
Since 2023, there have been at least 11 reported cases of undersea cable damage around Taiwan and a similar number in the Baltic Sea. Authorities have suggested that China or Russia, two countries with strained relations with the West, might be behind these incidents, although some damage has been attributed to natural causes.
In January, NATO launched the Baltic Sentry operation to monitor suspicious maritime activities in the Baltic Sea. However, no retaliatory actions have been taken against Beijing or Moscow, and the European Commission has only released a roadmap for possible sanctions and diplomatic measures against “hostile actors” without naming any specific countries.
Despite the seizure of vessels like the Hong Tai 58, authorities have not pressed criminal charges against individuals or companies involved in these incidents. Both Beijing and Moscow have denied involvement in the sabotage of undersea cables.
Ray Powell, the director of Stanford’s Sea Light project, explained that the “grey zone” tactics used in these incidents are designed for plausible deniability. He noted that perpetrators may ensure their actions are just ambiguous enough to avoid definitive proof of their involvement.
Undersea cables, which carry 99% of global digital communications, often suffer damage from environmental factors, fishing activities, or aging. Telecommunications data provider TeleGeography reports that 100-200 cable faults occur each year, a number that has led the industry to build redundancy into subsea networks to maintain connectivity when one cable fails.
However, experts believe that the recent spate of incidents suggests some may be intentional acts of sabotage, as multiple cables have been damaged at the same time or in suspicious proximity to certain vessels. Barbara Keleman from intelligence firm Dragonfly noted that statistical deviations in the frequency and patterns of these incidents indicate the possibility of deliberate attacks.
The Hong Tai 58 incident occurred shortly after Taiwanese authorities detained another ship, the Shun Xing 39, which was suspected of damaging a Trans-Pacific Express cable. Due to bad weather, authorities were unable to board the vessel, which continued its journey to South Korea. These ongoing incidents raise the possibility of escalating tensions and covert actions aimed at undermining global communications infrastructure.
