A new World Bank report has painted a bleak picture for global poverty eradication, revealing that 622 million people will still be living in extreme poverty by 2030, despite decades of concerted global efforts to end hunger and poverty.
This stark outlook highlights the growing challenges faced by developing economies, once seen as engines of global progress, which are now falling further behind in the race toward sustainable development.
The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report attributes this grim forecast to a combination of weak economic growth, low investment, stalled reforms, and the escalating impacts of climate change. Over the past 15 years, the growth trajectory of developing economies has decelerated to its weakest pace since the early 2000s. Without significant change, only six of the 26 low-income countries today are projected to achieve middle-income status by 2050. Meanwhile, malnutrition and hunger will persist at alarming levels, entrenching the poverty cycle further.
Low-income economies, which represent more than 40 percent of the global population living on less than $2.15 a day, face particular hardships. These economies have made minimal progress in reducing poverty, with average inflation-adjusted GDP per capita growing by less than 0.1 percent annually over the last 15 years. Factors such as ongoing conflicts, economic instability, and limited fiscal capacity have hindered their ability to implement necessary reforms and foster growth.
At the dawn of the 21st century, developing economies began with remarkable momentum, doubling their share of global GDP from 25 percent in 2000 to nearly 50 percent today. However, much of this growth occurred before the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Since then, growth rates have sharply declined from 5.9 percent in the 2000s to 3.5 percent in the 2020s. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated the situation, inflating public debt levels and stalling necessary domestic reforms.
Trade, a critical growth engine for developing economies, has also faltered. Foreign direct investment inflows into these economies are now half the levels they were in the 2000s, while trade restrictions imposed in 2024 were five times the annual average of the previous decade. This loss of momentum has left many developing nations poorly equipped to cope with rising economic challenges, thus widening the income gap with more advanced economies.
Despite these challenges, the report offers a potential path forward for developing economies to address their difficulties and reduce extreme poverty. One of the key recommendations is to strengthen economic ties with other developing nations. Currently, more than 40 percent of exports from developing economies go to other developing economies—an increase from 20 years ago. By deepening trade relationships and attracting intra-regional investment, these economies can foster shared growth and reduce their dependency on advanced economies.
The report also calls for domestic reforms to modernize infrastructure, improve human capital, and accelerate the transition to climate-resilient economies. If implemented effectively, these measures could unlock productivity gains and strengthen economic resilience, offering a pathway to sustained development.
While the growth of advanced economies such as the United States, the euro area, and Japan continues to affect developing economies, this dependence is less pronounced than in previous decades. This shift offers developing economies an opportunity to take greater control of their economic futures.
With global economic growth expected to stabilize at 2.7 percent in 2025, developing economies face a limited window of opportunity to act. The report warns that in an era marked by high global uncertainty, complacency is not an option. Without bold reforms and strategic policies, the ambitious poverty eradication goals of the past will remain out of reach. To prevent 622 million people from remaining in extreme poverty by 2030, urgent and coordinated action is needed now.
